Home prices will remain ‘under control’ as sellers surge in spring

Property transactions accelerated in February, with the latest data from HMRC showing a 6% increase month-on-month after a decline in January.

Seasonally adjusted residential transactions rose from 96,940 in January to 102,410 in February 2026 – the highest monthly total since March 2025. Despite the increase, activity is down 6% compared with the same month last year, when transactions were boosted by buyers looking to buy ahead of a change to the stamp duty land tax threshold in April 2025.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions also increased, rising 7% over the month.

In the non-residential sector, seasonally adjusted transactions reached 10,150 in February, up 2% from January, but still 2% below February 2025 levels. Non-seasonally adjusted figures showed a similar trend, rising 3% month-on-month to 8,790, while down 2% year-on-year.

Overall, February data shows that activity has recovered from the January slump, with transaction levels approaching levels seen before November 2025.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, commented, “Transactions were accelerating earlier this year as spring approached and the uncertainty posed by the November Budget was disappearing in the rearview mirror. The recent rise in mortgage rates as a result of the Middle East conflict will have a delayed impact on the housing market as higher rates will last for the next several months, putting pressure on sales volumes and prices. The extent to which demand is kept in check depends on the length and severity of the conflict and the Bank of How England calibrates its response.”

HMRC property transaction data for February points to a housing market that remains resilient, according to Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops.

He commented: “The level of activity suggests a measured start to the year, with buyers moving thoughtfully as mortgage rates continue to fluctuate, encouraging a more thoughtful and considered approach to decision making.

“This marks a clear contrast to the same period last year, when buyers were actively racing to complete transactions ahead of the stamp duty changes introduced in April 2025. The increase in activity inevitably led to a degree of demand.

“Across our network, we have recorded a significant increase in new instructions, particularly in coastal locations and well-connected commuter hotspots. Branches such as Newmarket and Taunton have seen property instructions more than double month-on-month, reflecting growing seller confidence heading into the spring market.

“Encouragingly, assets priced in line with current market conditions are attracting meaningful interest and progressing to exchange, while assets priced above market expectations continue to require more patience and careful negotiation.”

Jason Tebb, chairman of OnTheMarkets, said: “This transaction data reflects the period after the uncertainty generated by pre-Budget speculation and before the Middle East conflict arose. The market was bullish, with buyers and sellers keen to keep their moves and transaction levels at the same level as at the end of the stamp duty holiday last year.

“The data shows how important clarity and confidence are for the smooth functioning of the housing market. Our own Property Sentiment Index shows that while focused buyers and sellers are engaged in the business of moving forward, many have already delayed making a decision and are unwilling, or unable to wait any longer.

“Although mortgage rates have been moving upwards, these have come on the back of several base-rate cuts from the Bank of England. As far as affordability is concerned, many borrowers are still better off than they were a few years ago.

“The increase in the number of sellers bringing their homes to the market this spring will keep prices in check somewhat, helping those who want to move up.”

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